Hulsman has also written articles on international relations for publications around the world. These include for: The Financial Times, The International Herald Tribune, The Los Angeles Times, The Wall Street Journal, Policy Review, Newsweek, USA Today, Christian Science Monitor, Süddeutsche Zeitung, Die Welt and Le Monde.
Aspenia, February 26, 2013.
Amazingly, even for an intensely inward-looking America, in six hours of televised presidential campaign debates, neither President Obama nor Vice President Biden once mentioned Mexico, America’s critically important neighbor to the south. This was a grave omission for two fundamental reasons, both because of the country’s wholly unremarked-upon potential, as well as the grave peril it currently finds itself in.
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Aspenia, January 2013.
The neoconservatives are absolutely right to go after Secretary of Defense nominee Chuck Hagel with everything they’ve got. During his two terms as Senator from Nebraska, Hagel exhibited the entirely out of fashion Midwestern view that people should be held accountable for their actions. In today’s Washington this makes him very dangerous.
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Limes, Dezember 2012.
In a frightening, fast-changing, seemingly inexplicable world, humans are apt to simplify things in order to make sense of it all. From this primal need emerged the fairytale genre, allegories that tried to make sense of a Europe then in wrenching transition from feudalism to modern capitalism. An inherently conservative art form, they were warnings to newly liberated serfs to stay at home, not venture into the deep, dark woods, and in the end, to support the old titled order of princes and kings.
It didn’t work. As compelling as these black and white primers were, they simply could not stanch the restless flow of free labor to seek its fortune amidst a world where the unknown was ultimately seen as exciting and beneficial, rather than formlessly scary.
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Mythos And Instead Focus on the Greatest One-Way Bet in History
Limes, Dezember 2012.
I am a proud citizen of the great state of Ohio. As many Europeans have learnt over the past few election days, as Ohio goes, so goes the nation. Since 1900, over the past 112 years of national elections, The Buckeye State has only opted for the losing presidential candidate twice, a record unrivalled across America. Ohio is so important to ultimate victory that no Republican candidate in history—that is since the GOP first fielded a candidate in 1856—has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio.
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Second term presidencies, like second marriages, can be seen as the triumph of hope over experience. George W. Bush met with calamity in Iraq, Bill Clinton was impeached over the Lewinsky scandal, Ronald Reagan suffered through Iran-Contra, Richard Nixon perpetrated Watergate and resigned, and LBJ was engulfed and then devoured by the Vietnam War. Given this doleful record, what can realistically be hoped for in a second Obama term?
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Aspenia Online, 12. November 2012.
The writing has been on the wall for some time. Since the Iraq War/terrorism-dominated presidential election of 2004, foreign policy has slid off the table as a concern Americans base their votes upon. In January of this year, the Pew Research Center did extensive polling that concluded that at present Americans care more about domestic policy than at any point in the last 15 years. The adage attributed to former House Speaker Tip O’Neill that all politics are local has rarely seemed so true.
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Samir Saran & John C. Hulsman at The Hindu, 8. November 2012.
In his second administration, the form and contours of America’s ‘Asia Focus’ will be determined more by Asians than the U.S.
We live in an era that feeds off slogans and lives the clichés. For the Obama campaign it was the rallying cry “Forward.” And it seems that despite the ruminations of the pundits, who will complicate a straight line, the U.S. has given The President of the United States of America (POTUS) the mandate to march on, without the pressures of having to fight another election. The onus is now on President Obama to deliver on the many domestic challenges that confront his country and certainly on his vision for positioning the U.S. strongly in a rapidly changing world.
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Joachim Zepelin - Financial Times Deutschland, 7. November 2012.
Der Sieg von Barack Obama erfüllt die Hoffnungen der Mehrheit in Deutschland. Auf Wahlpartys in Berlin freuen sie sich am allermeisten darüber, dass Mitt Romney als Präsident verhindert wurde. US-Botschafter Murphy kokettiert mit einem Job im Finanzministerium.
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By Dr. John C. Hulsman
While undoubtedly entertaining (it could hardly fail to be so with Joe Biden as one of the protagonists), the recent Vice Presidential debate is highly unlikely to prove a game-changer in the now too-close-to-call 2012 campaign. Voters rarely if ever determine their vote for president based on who the White House is likely to send abroad to represent America at foreign funerals. Saying this, the two prospective candidates did get to the heart of the matter in terms of foreign policy.
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By Dr. John C. Hulsman
First, to the political outcome of the third American presidential debate, this time focused on foreign policy: Obama won cleanly but Romney did all that he had to do. CNN’s post-debate polling got it about right; by 48-40%, those who watched judged Obama the winner. However--and far less remarked upon by a left-leaning American media increasingly panicked about the outcome—that same poll showed that in terms of who the debate made those watching more likely to vote for, 25% said Romney, 24% percent the President, and 50% said neither. It is this latter poll that far better expresses what went on here.
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By Dr. John C. Hulsman
As the US presidential horserace rounds the final turn, President Obama remains where he has been for most of the year: ahead by a nose. The RealClearPolitics survey of the Electoral College—with no tossups—has the White House at just over 300 electoral votes (with 270 being the finishing line). However, there are now 10 states where the polling is consistently within the margin of error, where the slightest of jolts either way could determine the outcome. Heavyweights Florida, Ohio, and Virginia all sit on a knife’s edge.
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The Christian Science Monitor, September 21, 2012.
The article can only be read at The Christian Science Monitor's website.
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at National Interest, Fall 2005.
IN 1865, Viscount Palmerston, prime minister of England, lay dying. As is only too human, the great man desperately rejected the diagnosis. When Palmerston's physician broke the news to the elderly statesman that he was about to expire, he replied defiantly, "Die, my dear doctor? That's the last thing I shall do!"
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Limes, July 2012
The Indians called him Yellow Hair (because of his fashionably long blond locks) or Son of the Morning Star (because of his propensity to attack at daybreak). His own people saw Lt. Col. George Armstrong Custer, Indian fighter extraordinaire, as the exemplar of Manifest Destiny; the symbol that technological superiority wedded with dash meant that America coming to dominate the North American continent was a foregone conclusion. Certainly, nothing could go wrong, as the primitive Stone Age people he was grappling with could not possibly stand up to his state-of-the-art troops. Or in the mistaken, ahistorical, modern words of the current American president, ‘things always get better.’
Only on June 25, 1876, they didn’t.
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June 2012
Being a neurotic control freak has its upsides, particularly if you are a senior American political consultant. Both David Axelrod and David Plouffe--the svengalis behind President Obama’s thrilling 2008 run to the White House--would cheerfully concede the point. It is all about molding a campaign, putting a headlock around both the general narrative of the race and making especially sure that no one and nothing that is uncontrollable alters the basic trajectory of the contest. As such, the far more problematic 2012 presidential contest must keep both men up at nights.
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The Times of India
SAMIR SARAN & John C Hulsman May 11, 2012
One tired conversation that dominates most European institutions and forums threatens to become a fatal liability - distancing the EU from its partners across the Atlantic and among the new capitals that influence global decision-making in Asia, Africa and Latin America. It is Europe`s Don Quixote-like quest for `common global values.`
The search for this faux Holy Grail is preventing the global community from discovering vital common ground on the key issues that the emerging multipolar world is confronted with. Whatever be the issue, spending time trying to find the fool`s gold of universal values gets in the way of cutting the interest-based deals that will actually make this new world work.
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Limes, April 2012
Usually intelligence gathering for any serious foreign policy analyst is far more of an art than a science. After talking to literally dozens of decision-makers of all political stripes from around the world, then the real work starts: Sifting contradictory accounts, relying on what one actually knows to be so, and then making educated guesses about the rest, based on one’s ability but also by feel, experience, longstanding ties to the people in power and common sense you hope to arrive at the truth…somewhere around 7 out of ten times (if you are any good).
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Aspen Italy Online, April 2012
Well, the Republican freak show is at last mercifully over. It was not easy, but unloved Mitt Romney has at last prevailed over a field of others who could ably staff some traveling carnival. For Barack Obama the whole unedifying spectacle was a gift from heaven. Before the Republicans made their nominating process into some sort of reality TV show, the President significantly trailed a generic Republican challenger among independent voters, the pivotal group needed to win any general election. The White House now finds itself up by nine points among independents in the key swing states that will decide the presidency in 2012. Likewise, some of the mud from the GOP nominating process seems to have stuck to Romney; he enters the general election campaign with the lowest favorable rating of any major candidate since hapless Walter Mondale in 1984.
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Deutsche Welle online, February 2012
Most grown-up foreign affairs analysts (that is those who do not think the UN runs the world) accept that global governance only works when a majority of the planet’s great powers—based on specific shared interests—come together to right the world’s ills. As most problems are transnational in character and as power remains firmly ensconced at the nation-state level, it is only when these powers decide to work together that we truly get anywhere.
As such, the coming year of leadership transitions, where power will or may shift hands in four of the five Security Council’s permanent membership, is a year where stasis is about the best thing one can hope for. Given we live in a world of daunting and intractable problems, where the Iran nuclear crisis, euro-zone crisis, and future of the Arab Spring will all come to a head, this is not saying much. But given these transitions, looking for bold new policy initiatives out of the world’s great powers will be like waiting for Godot.
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Limes, February 2012
There have been no direct negotiations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Western powers since talks last broke down in December 2010. The intervening year has been little more than an exercise in counting tea leaves, with the glare of the commentariat irrelevantly focused on ineffectual UN sanctions, which obviously will do little to change Iran’s calculations as to whether to acquire nuclear weapons. Instead, while the rest of the world was preoccupied with ‘doing something’ (which in practice meant nothing), Iran inched ever closer—despite the ongoing setbacks of the Western-inspired Stuxnet virus and assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists—to developing a nuclear capability. But the pace was slow, the signs of progress opaque and contested, and the almost insoluble crisis had one blessed silver lining: It proceeded at such a glacial pace that it could be momentarily forgotten by hard-pressed western policymakers, preoccupied as they are with the financial crisis.
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Aspenia Online, January 25, 2012
The president must pinch himself every day; this is a man who cannot believe his luck. Despite spending money like a drunken sailor, presiding over an unemployment rate of 8.5%, and being forced to defend the deeply unpopular Obamacare, he must be seen as the favorite to win re-election.
According to a Washington Post poll released just days ago, Tea Party darling Newt Gingrich has a net unfavorable rating of 22%, with almost one hundred percent of those polled recognizing him. This must make the crack Obama re-election team drool; everyone knows Gingrich, and most people cannot stand him. The same goes for the tepid Mitt Romney, who inspires fervor in almost no one. The State of the Union was a grand opportunity for Obama to use the bully pulpit of the presidency--that is just to appear presidential--and the contrast with the other clowns wouldn’t escape anyone.
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Aspenia Online, January 24, 2012
Forget the breathless swooning of the political commentariat about the upcoming South Carolina Primary being too close to call. Even in the still unlikely event of a Gingrich upset victory there (and his ex-wife’s charge that he wanted an open marriage in the 1990s will do little to help him in the socially conservative Palmetto state), the Republican race for the 2012 presidential nomination is over, almost before it has begun.
Let’s take a look at the primary calendar. After South Carolina comes Florida, by far the largest state contested so far and one where retail hand-shaking is out and money, organization, and TV buys to cover it’s vast area are in. Romney is streets ahead of his surviving conservative rivals (Gingrich and Santorum) there, who will continue to divide the anti-Romney vote. Next up will be Nevada and Michigan, whose polling shows Romney comfortably ahead in both. Michigan looks particularly like Romney country; the candidate’s father George was a long-time popular governor there. Face it, if Romney wins South Carolina it’s over; if he narrowly loses it will be over. It’s time to leave the myopic world of GOP politics, and look at what the nominee actually plans to do should he be president.
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RealClearWorld.com, November 8, 2011
Even by America’s famously insular standards, the Republican race for president has up to now been striking in the desire of the prospective nominees to pretend the rest of the world simply does not exist. The most appalling example of this has to be Herman Cain mocking a reporter who was trying to trap him over the fact that he did not know that Islam Karimov was the leader of Uzbekistan. Cain turned on his questioner, mocking the country’s name, and making it very clear that such trivia was beneath him.
Other than the most vague criticisms of President Obama—centering on his stylistic penchant for apologizing for America’s past misdeeds—and with the great exception of a passion for Israel, you would think from listening to the endless series of GOP debates that America found itself alone in the world.
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Aspenia, November 2011
By the early morning hours of April 15, 1912, it was horribly clear that the unthinkable was about to happen. RMS Titanic—then the largest passenger steamship in the world and a vessel commonly thought to be unsinkable—was about to go to the bottom of the Atlantic. Of 2,223 passengers, 1,517 were to end in a watery grave, the victims of an almost unimaginable case of hubris.
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Limes, September 2011
In what seems a pre-crisis eternity ago, several years ago I was challenged by Limes to write an article on Germany’s evolving role in Europe. I began by relating a story of an exchange between now Polish Foreign Minister, Radek Sikorski, and myself about the Germans. In the early 00’s, Radek and I were the European foreign policy analysts for respectively the American Enterprise Institute and the Heritage Foundation. We privately agreed about a number of broad policy points of view—such as the problems with neoconservatism—but disagreed profoundly about Europe’s most powerful country. Radek, as befitted his Polish soul, was full of worries about Germany’s hidden agenda, its secret desire to dominate the whole of the continent, and the inability of the rest of Europe to stand up to Berlin. My reply was simple, “Radek, you have this all wrong. The trouble with Germany is that they are none of these things. They only want to be Liechtenstein, to have as little to do with the rest of us as possible. They are not MacBeth, they are Hamlet.”
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Limes, June 2011
Despite all the predictable surface confusion attending the dawning of a new era, the multipolar world we now find ourselves in is largely behaving structurally as realists would predict. With the relative decline of the sole global superpower, there has been a corresponding rise in the importance of regional powers and politics throughout the world. That is not to say that the United States has ceased being the world’s most important country. But rather like Britain in the late nineteenth century, it is the Chairman of the Board, but one steadily losing market share to the other board members as time marches on. As such, regional powers—from Indonesia to Turkey, from Brazil to South Africa—can increasingly flex their muscles in their own backyards, with American concerns remaining, but as an increasingly faint echo. Regionalism, and regional power competition, much as realists would expect, is increasingly becoming the key unit of analysis in the new era, a trend that is likely to eventually become apparent to all, even the Washington and European establishment.
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Limes, June 2011
For all of us who were there, the emotional feelings surrounding September 11th remain painfully clear. Trying to stay calm while calling around to see which friends could still answer the telephone. Wondering who was responsible for turning the world upside down, and when the next attack would begin. Hearing orders for government and think tank buildings to be evacuated, and everyone staying, continuing to do the job of figuring out who was responsible for all this. Flinching for weeks after every time a siren pealed. All this can be recalled as if it were yesterday.
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Aspenia Online, May 20, 2011
Though it is geostrategic logic that should not have eluded a three-year old, one of the most enduring consequences of American neo-conservatism’s calamitous adventure in Iraq was to leave arch enemy Iran and difficult ally Saudi Arabia alone vying for dominance in the vital Persian Gulf. With one of the Big Three regional powers (Iraq) permanently reduced, realists everywhere would find an increased rivalry between the remaining two to be almost axiomatic. And indeed, that is what has happened.
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Aspenia, March 2011
As the mesmerizing insurrection in Egypt raged, I found myself casting my mind back to Yitzhak Rabin, the greatest and most tragic of Israeli statesman. Despite the left’s misty-eyed love affair with the man, I always felt he was anything but a starry-eyed romantic. Instead, I always admired his compelling realist, soldier’s rationale for making peace with the hated enemy, Yasser Arafat; to safeguard Israel forever, it was best to negotiate and cut a deal from a position of strength, rather than stupidly wait for that position to corrode over time. In other words, in time honored Middle Eastern terms, bargain when you are strong, and not when you are weak.
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Limes, September 2010
Good jokes, as often as not, work because they reveal stark truths in a dramatic, irrefutable way. During the hand-over of power following the recent British election, a jest occurred that made news, precisely because it was so on target. The new (and since resigned) Deputy Chancellor of the Exchequer David Laws told a press conference of a note of wisdom and encouragement, left to him following a grand old British tradition by his predecessor in the job, Liam Byrne. The depressing missive was as short as it was to the point: ‘I’m afraid to tell you there’s no money left.’
Though few realize it yet, this sentence, more than anything else, will condition and define Western responses over the coming years to the emerging age of multipolarity.
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Sueddeutsche Zeitung, July 31, 2010
Recently, I have had a recurring experience that has made me feel like the Bill Murray character in the great film, Groundhog Day, doomed to relive the same day over and over again. Nestled in some comfortable coffee house, a sensible, intelligent, and generally well-meaning series of Europeans, once pleasantries are exchanged, have said the same, blunt very un-European thing to me, ‘Over Mrs. Palin, have the American people simply lost their minds?’
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Aspenia, June 2010
Before the Greek crisis, a weary bipartisan conventional wisdom about Europe was settling over both major American political parties. It is certainly true that in the Democratic Party there remain plenty of Euro-cheerleaders, who, refusing to let the reality of multipolarity ruin the grandeur of their Wilsonian visions, still envisage a triumphalist democratic, western, directorate remaining at the core of the global power structure.
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Aspenia Online, May 14, 2010
It isn’t often that an election produces three losers and no winners. Yet that is exactly what has happened in the UK. Labour, the incumbent holders of power for 13 years, led by the exhausted and deeply uncharismatic Prime Minister Gordon Brown, received their expected electoral shellacking, losing 90-plus seats and coming a distant second to the Tories in terms of voting percentage.
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Sueddeutsche Zeitung, February 5, 2010
Amidst the tons of verbiage that has been written since the shock election of Republican Scott Brown in Massachusetts (for a useful counter-factual, think of the reaction if Teddy Kennedy had won a Senate seat in Utah), two overwhelming reasons as to why stand out.
Probably no one in American political history ran as good a campaign for president. But staggeringly, as I wrote here months ago, Obama and his team did not understand the nature of their triumph. Seeing it as a basic realignment of American politics leftwards, Obama listened to those equating him with the messiah and ignored more pedestrian facts, like the exit polling from the 2008 election.
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Limes, February 2010
Immediately after the Iraq invasion, when the dim outlines of the emerging multipolar world seemed far away, I was asked by the prestigious Council on Foreign Relations to serve on a task force designed to make a success of nation building in Iraq. I was probably the most junior person picked to staff the group, a non-neoconservative Republican added for balance, as the great and the good of the American foreign policy establishment eagerly grasped the nettle of telling the people of another country, of another culture, how they ought to govern themselves. After a month or so of hearing what we should tell the Iraqi people and elites they should do, I could take it no longer. I exploded, ‘and what if they don’t take our advice? Are we prepared to stay there forever, at limitless cost, to pursue the exercise of, as Woodrow Wilson said, teaching the rest of the world to elect good men? Should we do this? Can we do this?’
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Limes (Italian Journal), December 28, 2007
In the unhappy, waning days of the Bush administration, the Iranian nuclear crisis towers above all others. This is reflected in the foreign policy positions of the major candidates for president in 2008. While a gloomy consensus has emerged over Iraq (the U.S. cannot leave immediately but should begin to draw down troops, train up the army and critically the police, and follow the oft-ignored recommendations of the Baker-Hamilton report and secure the support of neighboring regimes not to meddle in Baghdad’s internal affairs), policy over Iran has exposed clear differences. The Democratic field has stressed ‘more diplomacy’ to the exclusion of how this bumper sticker would stop the Iranians acquiring a nuclear weapon. The Republicans have thundered that Iran must not be allowed to have a nuclear weapon, and that ‘force must not be taken off the table,’ without looking at what this would mean strategically. These are slogans, not foreign policy positions. If the Iranian crisis is to be dealt with coherently, it is instructive to look at both the dangers of military action, as well as the dangers of doing nothing (ie increasing ‘diplomacy’ without genuine carrots and sticks undergirding such an approach). For beyond the campaign’s ritualized positions, there is a monumental crisis brewing here, and scant few policy proposals for dealing with it.
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Wall Street Journal, 29.11.2007
Michael Gerson, long praised (some would say over praised) as President Bush's genius speechwriter, is also, it turns out, a would-be moral philosopher and political strategist. In "Heroic Conservatism," he calls for the Republican Party to redefine itself and brighten its future by casting aside its suspicion of big government and pursuing lofty projects of statist do-goodery. Let us hope that Republicans ignore him. ...
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The National Interest, no. 90, (July/August 2007); short version reprint: "The End of the British 'Handling' of America", The National Interest Online, May 11, 2007
Go to the short version reprint "The End of the British 'Handling' of America" at National Interest Online
Christian Science Monitor, December 4, 2006.
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in: The Other Special Relationship: U.S.-Australia Relations At The Start Of The 21st Century, Jeffrey D. MacCausland and Douglas T. Stuart, eds., (Carlisle, PA: U.S. Army War College, September 2006)
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in: US-UK Relations At The Start Of The 21st Century, Jeffrey D. McCausland and Douglas T. Stuart, editors, (Carlisle, PA: US Army War College, 2006).
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National Interest, no.81, Fall 2005
National Interest, no.80, Summer 2005
Heritage Backgrounder #1786, August 5, 2004
The Daily Telegraph (London), April 15, 2004; reprinted in “Blair needs to gain tangible reward,” The Guardian (UK), April 16, 2004
Newsweek Europe. (December 20, 2002)
Orbis, vol.46 no.3, (Summer 2002)
Er lebt in Bayern und ist doch ganz nah dran am US-Politikbetrieb: Der amerikanische Politikberater John Hulsman analysiert im Interview die Lage Obamas, die Niederlage der Republikaner und die Chancen für Hillary Clinton bei der nächsten Präsidentschaftswahl.
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SZ.de: Herr Hulsman, wie hat Obama das wieder geschafft?
Hulsman: Er hat ein paar technische Tricks benutzt. Seine Leute wussten, dass sie die Zahl der Wähler im Vergleich zu 2008 vergrößern mussten. Die Minderheiten mussten wieder wählen. Er hatte ja 80 Prozent von ihnen, nur 40 Prozent der Weißen. Das Spiel am Boden, Menschen zum Wählen zu motivieren - niemand kann das besser. Eine sehr professionelle Kampagne.
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Der Sieg von Barack Obama erfüllt die Hoffnungen der Mehrheit in Deutschland. Auf Wahlpartys in Berlin freuen sie sich am allermeisten darüber, dass Mitt Romney als Präsident verhindert wurde. US-Botschafter Murphy kokettiert mit einem Job im Finanzministerium.
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read more on Financial Times Deutschland
The article can only be read at The Christian Science Monitor's website.
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Comparing the EU with a push-me-pull-you beast, political risk consultant Dr. John Hulsman predicts that the union should either go for further substantial integration and unification, or cease to exist as a geopolitical entity.
Interview on rt.com
One tired conversation that dominates most European institutions and forums threatens to become a fatal liability - distancing the EU from its partners across the Atlantic and among the new capitals that influence global decision-making in Asia, Africa and Latin America. It is Europe`s Don Quixote-like quest for `common global values.`
The search for this faux Holy Grail is preventing the global community from discovering vital common ground on the key issues that the emerging multipolar world is confronted with. Whatever be the issue, spending time trying to find the fool`s gold of universal values gets in the way of cutting the interest-based deals that will actually make this new world work.
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With Brian Lamb, Q and A, C-SPAN, March 8, 2011
Interview on C-SpanVideo.org
Lawrence of Arabia is best remembered for the Oscar-winning film about his life. But there is a different T.E. Lawrence, as much a thinker as a warrior, a man who applied his unique experiences and extensive knowledge of the Arab world to a radically different political vision for nation building in the Middle East that holds many lessons for today.
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America today faces a world more complicated than ever before, but both political parties have failed to envision a foreign policy that addresses our greatest threats. As a result, the United States risks lurching from crisis to crisis. The Bush administration's foreign policy strategy is bankrupt, but the Democrats are not providing any real alternatives.
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Book Review: The New York Times
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